It's Almost Supernatural

I suppose it was with a little irony that yesterday evening, on the eve of the Palestinian election, I managed to drag myself to see Paradise now. At a time when it looks as if Palestinians are about to commit political suicide by electing Hamas in large numbers to their parliament, I believed a movie about the rationale behind suicide bombing was a must see. And it won a golden globe no less!

Well to be honest I didn't expect to enjoy it and I didn't. I just didn't get it. It's so easy to blame 'the occupation' but can you really explain to me how that drove the 2 bombers in the movie firstly to want to die and secondly to kill innocent Israelis. Perhaps you will answer as they repeated ad nausum that 'they were already dead living under occupation'. But as far as I could make out they were living normal lives. They had jobs (motor mechanics), they had families who obviously cared for them and one was even falling in love (with a very pretty young lady if I may say so). Doesn't sound like they were dead to me.

Perhaps it was those ominous Israeli check points: 'the daily humiliation' of having to have their identification papers checked. Well, on my recent trip to Israel I had to endure my fair share of check points: on entering bus stations, restaurants and even the Western wall. No it wasn't pleasant, some rude man or women insensitively ruffling through my luggage and asking me inane questions. And yes there were times when I got angry, but come on it didn't make me want to blow myself up and take as many Jews as I could with me. Daily inconveniences no matter how irritating are no reason to become a suicide murderer.

The truth, I believe, is that a suicide bomber is more the Western equivalent of a drug addict than a soldier in the fight against Israeli 'occupation'. And organisations like Hamas are the dealers and pushers. They prey on weak Palestinian youngsters with low self-esteems and a desire to be somebody. What were the bombers last wishes? That their pictures be displayed in the town square as heroes. So while Western teens take drugs to be acknowledged as cool, their Palestinian counter parts blow themselves up. Their acknowledgement by Palestinian society as heroes through the sale of 'martyr' homemade movies at the local video store or the suicide bomber playing cards perpetuates this terrible situation.

Their acts have more to do with their personal desire for social recognition than any political cause. I felt sick at how their leaders constantly told them how brave and honourable they were. If that truly is the case, why then, I wanted to scream, don't Hamas' top leaders blow themselves up. Perhaps they not just ready for their place in Paradise.

The line that perhaps moved me the most was the Palestinian human rights worker's plea that although the bombers may go to paradise, they must consider what world they leave for those that remain behind. And so too today, when many Palestinians have thoughts of collectively blowing up their political landscape and electing Hamas to power, they would do well to heed her words. For Hamas will certainly not bring paradise now for those Palestinians that remain - only more violence and more misery.

You’ve got to love politicians. Yesterday I awarded an IAS Smoking Socks Award to ANC WP Chief Whip Max Ozinski for his biting letter to the Cape Times about the ANC governments stance on Israel.

I said that Ozinski fell straight into the trap set by Joel Pollack. Today Pollack cashes in on the trap he set.

Will Mad Max respond and cause further embarrassment to the ANC? I predict a tag team response with former Smoking Socks Award winner (and SA Minister of Intelligence) Ronnie Kasrils tagging in for Mad Max.

The Smoking Socks award is awarded to a letter writer in a South African paper whose funky smelling socks have induced him/her into a bout of prejudiced stupidity.

Michael Bagraim – Chairman of the SA Jewish Board of Deputies (SAJBD) – responded in a letter saying that the SA government has constantly been supportive of Israeli governments that took positive steps toward the achievement of Palestinian statehood.

Michael Belling followed up with a letter asserting that Mbeki’s policy towards Israel is balanced and supports a two state solution. Belling, as I did, noted Mbeki’s letter of support and praise sent to PM Sharon after the disengagement.

In contrast, Joel Pollack from the DA then defended Holliday’s central point saying that the ANC may have indeed made an about-turn on Israel – something which many of the ANC rank-and-file might oppose. Pollack criticised Bagraim and Belling for their inaccurate suggesting that the ANC had always taken a balanced approach to the Israel-Palestinian conflict.

And here now, ANC Chief Whip and winner of the latest IAS Smoking Socks Award - Max Ozinski, one of the ran-and-file specifically mentioned by Pollack, plays straight into Pollack's trap. Read as Max Ozinski sounds more like the children at the ANC Youth League than the Youth League itself.

Will there ever be a more deserved winner of the Smoking Socks Award?

View previous winners here, here, here, here, and here.

I have been following closely the response of the South African Muslim community to the BMCC ruling chastising the anti-Semitic broadcast of the Voice of the Cape (VOC) radio station. And to be frank I am extremely disappointed.

Much of the public response from the Muslim community (that I have read) has focused on criticizing the ‘sensationalist’ manner in which the Cape Argus reported the ruling. The headline “Muslim radio found guilty of anti-Semitic hate speech” splashed across numerous billboards across the Western Cape infuriated and possibly embarrassed many local Muslims.

The VOC itself has been very involved in analyzing the implications of the ruling. Its response has been to invert reality and paint the South African Jewish Board of Deputies (SAJBD) as the aggressors while casting themselves in the role of victim.

An article on the VOC website entitled written by an ‘observer’ at the station states that

In addition to this the SAJBD has been accused of being anti free speech (as Steve predicted) and responsible for ‘throwing the media industry back to the ways of the apartheid era’. This response from the SAJBD, explains the Muslim Views editor Faried Sayed, “points to a lack of capacity to engage intellectually.”

The article then concludes with some pseudo-psychology about Jews always playing the eternal victim and thus never reaching their full potential. I wonder if the VOC has ever heard of the expression people in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones, for they too seem to have an unhealthy obsession with victimhood.

Surely this whole episode calls for introspection on the part of the official Muslim community. Hasn’t the time come for moderate Muslims to denounce the rabid anti-Semitism that has infected their society (all too clearly exposed by the VOC broadcast). Yet there has been no real remorse only more hate.

This BMCC ruling is a significant victory for those of us who believe in fighting racism in South Africa. But exposing its ugly face is only the first step. Eradicating anti-Semitism in South Africa can only be achieved through education and engagement on the part of the South African Jewish community.

To their credit the VOC have publicly stated that

I challenge the VOC to stand by that statement.

I know that it has often been the policy of the SAJBD not to engage in debate on certain occasions in order not to give the forum legitimacy. While understanding their concerns, I do not support this policy. No matter what the forum we must always engage. For a little voice is certainly better than no voice. Thus I call on the SAJBD to take up the VOC’s offer.

If the SABJD refuse (which I expect is likely), I am happy to personally provide the VOC with my Jewish perspective. Our online debate last year with Abu Ghaib (see: Both Sides of the coin) showed both Jews and Muslims in South Africa that debate is possible on controversial topics and that it can be handled in a responsible manner.

Some Context:
See the BMCC ruling against VOC here.
See the background to the whole affair here.

A letter in the Cape Times this week asks

I sent the following letter to the Cape Times. They didn't publish it though...

The commission found that absolutely no direct responsibility for the massacre devolved upon Israel or anyone acting on its behalf. It determined that the massacres were carried out by a Christian Phalangist unit acting on its own. The inquiry found Sharon personally responsible for Israel’s indirect responsibility. He was personally responsible for having failed to have foreseen the potential for a massacre. This is very different from Fisk’s suggestion that he was responsible for encouraging or directing the massacres.

Fisk’s suggestion and the evidence he provided was in fact deemed inaccurate and defamatory by a New York court after Sharon launched a succesful libel battle against Time magazine in the 1980s for reporting – as Fisk claims – that he had encouraged the massacres.

In the Israel commission of inquiry Sharon testified that he foresaw no potential massacre given Lebanon’s position in the Arab world – the Christians if they won the war would need the support of the Arab world in order to govern Lebanon. Harsh actions against Palestinians would not have helped their position.

The text of the commission also deals with various objections that had been voiced, according to which if Israel's direct responsibility for the atrocities was negated - i.e., if it was determined that the blood of those killed was not shed by I.D.F. soldiers and I.D.F. forces, or that others operating at the behest of the state were not parties to the atrocities - then there is no place for further discussion of the problem of indirect responsibility. Despite these arguments Israel still looked into their indirect responsibility – and they should be applauded for having done so.

It is interesting to note that while so much attention is paid to these particular massacres the world seems to have forgotten about the subsequent and more severe massacres that took place when Syrian-backed Lebanese Shiite Muslims were directly involved in killing over 3000 Palestinians in those very same camps from 1985-1988. No outcry was ever directed at the Syrians over the slaughter.

Surprise surprise, the French are at it again. Molly codling Middle Eastern tyrants seems to be their national past time.

It was reported today in the Daily Sun that General Henri Bentegeat, the chief of France’s ‘defense’ staff, said that

It’s actually unbelievable. Does he not realize the complete madness in allowing a state that has publicly called for the annihilation of a fellow nation to go nuclear? Europe must understand that Iran’s agenda does not stop with the wiping of Israel off the Map. The Jews are only the little Satan, President Ahmadinejad has many a score to settle with Christian Europe as well.

History has proven all too often that it begins with the Jews but never ends there. Sacrificing Israel on the table of appeasement won’t save France. If anything, it will only delay its day of reckoning with Islamic fundamentalism.

A nuclear Iran poses a very real threat to Western civilization. Now is certainly not the time to chicken out. But hey it is the French after all.

The haters at Cape Town radio station Voice of the Cape (Voc) have finally been forced to apologise for their anti-Jewish hate speech.

This comes after the Broadcasting and Complaints Committee ruled that remarks made on VoC amounted to Hate Speech. The ruling required VoC to broadcast a scripted apology once on its main news bulletin and at the beginning and end of the programme which contained the original hate comments.

Now let's wait for the traditional cry about their right to free speech.

Thanks to Elder of Ziyon for spotting this and to Soccer Dad for pointing him my way.

Read about the background to this affair, including a debate between IAS writer Mike and Abu Ghaib -a former member of the management structures at Voice of the Cape: Both Sides of the Coin

Abu Ghaib, if you reading this and want to reply, send your response over and I will again post it on the main page.

The murky relationsip between South Africa and Iran continues: Pahad discusses nuclear row with Iranians

On Wednesday the Cape Times reported

For more on the ongoing South African diplomatic efforts vis-vis Iran see

Here the US was seeking SA help with Iran
Here South Africa was in new talks with Iran.
Here South Africa side-stepped the Iranians calls to annihilate Israel.
Here we signed a memorandum of understanding on bilateral communication with Iran.

Michael Bagraim makes an excellent point in his letter to the Sunday Times that ‘there is no Palestinian equivalent of the freedom Charter’. I felt that his point needed to be further expanded on. Comparing the violence in the Middle East to our struggle for a non-racial and democratic South Africa is not only factually inaccurate but also degrades the remarkable achievements of our New South Africa.

Throughout history every movement for political change has had at its core a document encapsulating the ethical basis for its cause. The Freedom Charter was the cornerstone of our Struggle, and similarly the PLO Charter is the philosophical foundation of Yassir Arafat’s Palestinian Authority. Comparing these two documents highlights just how far fetched and insulting, the comparison between the Middle East conflict and our South African Struggle is. One is a tribute to non-racialism and democratic values and the other a declaration of hatred and oppression.

The Freedom Charter reads:

As a result of the ideology encapsulated in the Freedom Charter, we have created a society with the political values that are envied the world over. But as a result of the ideology encapsulated in the PLO Charter, it is not surprising the type of society the Palestinian Authority has created in its autonomous areas.

A society which has no respect for human life and where unrestrained violence and hatred are legitimate expressions of national identity. A society which defends the blowing up of school buses filled with children and the killing of innocent civilians in a shopping center. A society in which hands dipped in the blood of lynch-mob victims are raised to cheering crowds. A society in which cultural artifacts and holy sites of other religions are destroyed. A society in which education consists of inculcating small children with hatred for other races, religions and cultures. A society in which children attend summer camps where they are taught that to be a suicide bomber is the highest form of religious statement and for which their parents get paid blood money for such child sacrifice.

There can be no doubt that the Palestinian people have endured much suffering. And it is only natural and proper that we South Africans, who have also endured much suffering, empathize with them. But empathy alone is not enough. We, who were wise enough to choose an ethical form of struggle, need to make it clear that hijacking our struggle as a public relations exercise will not bring credibility to theirs. True freedom comes not from Jihad, which has as its core hatred and violence but from Amandla, which is based on brotherhood and purity of heart.

Zapiro continues to show how you can be Jewish and still be cool at the same time!

From this weeks Sunday Times

I'd like to ask Zapiro just who he would like Israel to "give back the West Bank" to? It was not taken from the Palestinians, it was taken from Jordan.

If Israel decides to unilaterally withdraw from parts of the West Bank it is their prerogative. But it should not be expected of them. In response to Zapiro's cartoon mocking Israel's withdrawal from Gaza I wrote

Here's another item of ZapTrash - a rerun of a 2001 cartoon which the Mail & Guardian printed last week.

You can't help but notice the irony of this. With Hamas looking strong contenders for the Palestinian election which will soon be held, the M&G choose to lampoon a vote for Sharon as a vote for war - in the face of mounting concern over Hamas' participation in the PA elections - illegal according to Oslo. Some highlightes of the Hamas charter:

In a letter to the Sunday Times this week, Michael Bagraim - chairman of the SA Jewish Board of Deputies - responds to last week's sardonic editorial: The Palestinians Have no Freedom Charter. Bagraim highlightes that unlike the ANC, the Palestinians have no  Freedom Charter.

Here’s the ever-disgraceful Media Review Network’s (MRN) press release on Ariel Sharon. Read as they dispense their special brand of wisdom. And oh yes…the original was all in CAPS.

"A modern day attempt to annihilate the Palestinians through various Pogroms?" Oh dear...

It's always amusing to hear supporters of terrorist gangs whose objective is to murder civilians and who engage in hostilities dressed in civillian clothing complain about Israel not playing by the Geneva rules.

Remember, this is the group that the South African media rely on for the “Palestinian perspective.” By always running articles from the members of the MRN the local media only serve to legitimise their hateful and intolerant opinions. These guys are hard line HamasHoles - and the loal media can't get enough of them.

Umm...sorry cowboys...you have already been proven wrong: East Jerusalem Palestinians will be able to vote in PLC elections

Make no mistake – they support the destruction of Israel. Completely and utterly.

Update

These propaganda peddlers still include on their front page an incorrect map of the “dreaded apartheid wall”. If the real barrier is so bad then why resort to displaying a fictitious map?

Here's yesterdays cartoon in the Cape Times by Jewish cartoonist Zapiro...

What more can you expect from a man whose works of art include this 2002 depiction of Ariel Sharon as a Nazi commander?

President Mbeki's recent statement of support for Ariel Sharon has confused the Cape Times (subscribers only). In an official statement of sympathy last week President Mbeki said

The Cape Times are confused by the ambiguity of the South African position on Israel. It was South Africa after all, who joined ranks with Arab regimes in taking a case against Israel's security barrier to the International Court of Justice. Furthermore

Mbeki's hope that Sharon continues to govern Israel is a far cry from all this.

But I think the change took place along time ago as is suggested by this letter of support and praise that President Mbeki sent to PM Ariel Sharon after the disengagement from Gaza.

Other indications of Mbeki's change in attitude to Israel: the improving trade between South Africa and Israel and the recent state visit by Israeli Deputy PM Ehud Olmert (accompanied with 23 business leaders) to South Africa. Even before that visit South Africa held host to a group of Likud politicians.

But what of all these mixed signals? Does it really indicate a change in attitude towards Israel?

The South African Blogosphere has great praise for Ariel Sharon.

On the center right there's Commentary with two fine posts here and here. Both authors will miss Ariel Sharon should he be unable to return to the political sphere.

Even the left at Gabbahead has a warm tribute to Sharon over here.

Finally, Vaz Lube has this to say.

An editorial at The Star remembers the stroke that changed South African politics, concluding that the situation in Israel is very different: A stroke of bad luck.

Condemning themselves to the malaise of mediocrity, this editorial in the Sunday Times only serves to reveal their naked biases.

Opining about the ills of Ariel Sharon, the Sunday Times resorts to an old an tired canard.

It's difficult to imagine that an Editor of good conscience could really believe in his heart of hearts that one visit by Ariel Sharon to the Holiest site in Judaism could trigger an Intifada and undo "the work of Rabin and Ehud Barak". That work was finally undone in December 2002 when Arafat refused to accept the Clinton Parameters which would have created a Palestinian state alongside Israel.

Imad Faluji, the Palestinian Authority Communications Minister, admitted months after Sharon's visit that the violence had been planned in July, far in advance of Sharon's "provocation." "It [the uprising] had been planned since Chairman Arafat's return from Camp David, when he turned the tables on the former U.S. president and rejected the American conditions." ("Palestinian Minister says uprising was planned," AP, March2, 2001.)

Sharon did not even enter any mosques and his 34 minute visit to the Temple Mount was conducted during normal hours when the area is open to tourists. Only in the Sunday Time's world of inverted reality is that enough to justify a violent uprising against unarmed civilians.

The Palestinians were aware of the Sharon visit. Dennis Ross in his book "The Missing Peace" tells the account of how the visit was coordinated between Shlomo Ben Ami (Israeli Minister of Internal security) and Jibril Rajoub (Palestinian Head of Preventive Security):

Finally, if that is not enough the Mitchell Report which was tasked with looking into the cause of the violence that began in mid-2000 concluded

The editorial ends by scandalously picking out the South African Jewish community, asking us to share with Israel the secret to the successful marriage that occurred in South Africa – despite the fact that the Israelis and Palestinians need a divorce – not a marriage.

It's another pattern prevalent amongst South African editorialists – singling out the South African Jews to influence the Israelis without placing any responsibility on the South African Muslims to influence the radical Islamic gangs that seek to destroy Israel.

Update
Thanks to the ever dependable Soccer Dad for some more links that refute the myth that Sharon's visit to the Temple Mount triggered the Intifada.

At Soccer Dad an excerpt from David Samuels's article in the Atlantic where Mamduh Nofal, the former military commander of the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine, tells his account of how Arafat planned the violent uprising against unarmed civilians.

The day after Sharon's visit, violence escalated when Israeli Border Policeman Yossi Tabeja was shot dead by his Palestinian counterpart on one of their joint patrols near Kalkilya.

Here's a letter from the Permanent Representative of Israel to the UN to Kofi Annan which says that the violence started on September 13. It includes the account of violence on the eve of the Jewish New Year when Palestinians on the Temple Mount hurled rocks at the Jewish worshippers at the Western Wall below them.

Sharon’s devastating stroke and subsequent coma has left acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, like much of Israel, in limbo. I acknowledge the difficult position Olmert is in. As Sharon has not yet been declared incapacitated, it would be inappropriate from Olmert to bury him politically and take charge. But this is no excuse for his utter lack of leadership.

Surely one of his first acts as acting Prime Minister should have been to call a press conference and try addresses the anxieties of the Israeli nation. He needed to make it clear to everyone that he hopes and prays for Sharon’s recovery, but at the same time, recognizing the seriousness of Sharon’s medical condition will now lead the country until the elections. Olmert should then have spelt out what exactly his leadership will entail. Would not a photo of Olmert flanked by the leading lights of Kadima from Shaul Mofaz to Shimon Peres have gone a long way to quell the unabating speculation in both the Israeli and international media that Kadima will disintegrate? Yet the only image we have is of Olmert sitting next to Sharon’s empty chair in the cabinet meeting looking lost, even helpless, without his political master.

Not only was a press conference necessary to subdue the fears of Israelis, but also to warn Israel’s enemies not to take advantage of the situation. Israel’s enemies from the leader of Iran to the commanders of Palestinian terrorist groups have all celebrated Sharon’s stroke as if it was their own personal military victories. Olmert should have made it clear that with or without Sharon Israel will be relenting in its fight against terrorism. He should have warned Iran that a military strike is not off the table and explained to Palestinian terrorists that large scale military incursions into Gaza will be ordered if the rocket fire does not cease.

Finally he should have called a press conference to allay the concerns of many of Israel’s allies that with Sharon’s departure has gone the hope for progress on the Israeli-Palestinian front. He should make it clear that he, like Sharon, has endorsed the roadmap, that he supports a 2 state solution, and that he is prepared to make painful sacrifices to achieve this. He should also have made it clear to the international community that Israel has always been a partner and will continue to be a partner. The only obstacle to a settlement is Chairman Abbas’ refusal to dismantle the terrorist infrastructure as required by the roadmap.

But Olmert has remained largely silent, shunning the responsibilities of an acting Prime Minister and continuing to act as if he were only the Finance Minister. (It was reported on Haaretz tonight that his schedule for the next few days deals solely with economic issues such as trying to pass the budget). If he does not begin to starting acting like a leader, others such as Bibi Netanyahu or Shimon Peres will be only to happy to fill the role.

Jewish Tombstones at the West Park cemetary in Johannesburg have been vandalised. Police have arrested a number of suspects who will soon be charged.

Unfortunately I haven't yet been able to find a link for details of this story. If any South African readers come across a link to this story please mail it my way.

Update at 10/01/2006

The print media have finally caught onto this story.

It looks as if this was a case of vandalism (something very prevalent in SA) and not anti-Semitism (something not very prevalent in SA).

The Star has more details

The jury may still be out on whether this was or wasn't an anti-Semitic incident. Could the Jewish Board of Deputies be trying to play this down? Nova reported that only 22 of the graves desecrated were from the Jewish section but their report contradicts with this one from The Star.

Anyway, I'm sure its hard for non-South Africans to believe that this wasn't anti-Semitic. You sort of have to live here to understand the type of vandalism that occurs on a daily basis in this beautiful country of ours.

In their grim determination to incite hatred and create chaos the radical Islamists know no bounds. One of the most popular themes of this treachery is to fabricate lies about Israel attempting to destroy the Al-Aqsa Mosque.

Last week Islam Online reported accusations made by the propaganda peddlers at the Supreme Islamic Association that Israel was building a synagogue beneath their beloved Al Aqsa, warning that the excavations jeopardised the Mosques structure.

Their evidence for these psychodramatic fantasies included video footages and photos documenting the "continued Israeli excavations".

Media Backspin subsequently blogged about an article by UPI which categorically debunked the inciting Islamic slurs. Commenting on the "video footage and photographic evidence" that the Al Aqsa Mosque director presented UPI said...

On my recent trip to Israel I went on the popular tunnel tour that the UPI article refers to. The picture below is of a model at the beginning of the tunnel tour. The model is used to provide context of where we would soon be walking. The model has many removable pieces such as the Golden Dome and the 2nd temple to show the changes that have taken place on the Temple Mount.

The Western wall is actually the entire western wall of the Temple Mount which you can see in the above model. The area where people can visit today is the area to the extreme right which is free from housing and development. The rest of the wall is hidden by Muslim housing in the Old City. In order to view the rest of the wall without disrupting the Muslim housing, tunnels were dug beneath the housing. The digging revealed the parts of the Western Wall which is below the ground as well as vast Roman archways and roads from almost 2000 years ago. The tunnels trace the path of the Western Wall which delves many metres beneath the ground.

The next photo shows a detailed model of the second temple built by King Herod in 516BC. This is the model that the Supreme Islamic Association used as evidence of plans to build the dreaded 3rd temple. How very pathetic.

The Palestinians deny that there ever was a Jewish Temple in Jerusalem and so they are compelled to fabricate myths about what is in these tunnels, tunnels which are open to all tourists.

Fatah outraged at al-Arabiyah television

Gaza journalists receive death threats

I arrived back 2 days ago from almost a month in Israel. I had intended to begin this year’s blogging with some of the insights I gained on my trip and perhaps even be so bold as to make some political predictions for 2006. But as a sat down to write, the news of Prime Minister Sharon’s massive stroke broke. And like most Middle East political observers, my perceptions and hope for the future course of Israeli-Arab relations was shattered. While I still intend to convey many of my numerous experiences in Israel, I feel that those are better left for a later date. Now it is only appropriate to deal with the unfolding tragedy that is befalling the Jewish people—Prime Minister Sharon’s ailing health.

While I continue to hope and pray that the Prime Minister makes a full recovery and is once again able to lead his Kadima party to victory in the March elections, medical evidence seems to suggest that this is unlikely. The length of the operation and the extent of the bleeding do not bode well for the Prime Minister. It seems that Ariel Sharon’s influence on the modern history of the Jewish people has come to an end. This realization has left many of us with a feeling of bewilderment. Who other than Sharon is able to lead the Jewish people at this crucial time?

As Steve pointed out, Ehud Olmert has taken over as acting Prime Minister and for now it seems as if Kadima members are solidly behind him. I met Mr Olmert once in Israel many years ago when he was still major of Jerusaelm and like Steve heard him speak when he came to South Africa. He was what is known as a Likud prince. His father was instrumental in the Irgun movement during the establishment of the state of Israel and later become a senior member of the Likud. Olmert like many other children of Irgun leaders (Bibi Netanyahu is another example) followed in their fathers’ political footsteps and dedicated their careers to serving the state of Israel through the Likud. As Steve points out this does give him some right wing credentials. But his recent sharp shift to the centre Left and adoption of a Ben Gurion-like as opposed to a Begin-like approach to the conflict with the Palestinians has alienated many of his previous supporters.

As a previous mayor of Jerusalem he does have extensive management experience necessary to run the country. The greater Jerusalem municipality is one of the largest in Israel. It is also one of the most politically complex with its many Arab, Christian, Jewish and secular residence. For many years he did managed to successfully run the city. He also has an international stature. He has conducted numerous negotiations with the American over the past 5 years on a wide range of issues and is a regular guest on international news channels.

Despite these positive qualities Olmert is no Sharon. He does not have the same military credibility. Thus he does not provide Israelis with the same sense of security that Sharon did. Moreover he is more bureaucrat than a politician and lacks the charisma necessary to secure a large majority for Kadima.

So what does all this mean for Israel? While it is much too early to make definitive political calls I do believe that Kadima headed by Olmert (assuming the party stays together) will receive far less than 40 seats in the Knesset. Likud and possibly Labour will benefit significantly as a result. And so the new Knesset will be further fragmented requiring more coalition partners and more compromise: effectively paralyzing progress on any of the major political and social issues facing the Jewish state.

Olmert is no Sharon.

The absence of Ariel Sharon from the Israeli political system will leave a void almost as big as the man himself. At this point it seems that even if Sharon does survive it is very unlikely that he will be able to return to work.

Deputy PM Ehud Olmert has stepped in as acting Prime Minister and he will probably remain in that position until the March elections.

Its been a very emotional day for all people of good conscience that follow Israeli politics. Whatever your political opinions on Sharon, it’s hard to deny that as Prime Minister he, almost single handedly, made Israel once again safe to visit.

For a long time now I have been backing Ariel Sharon and his unilateral plans, which I believed could finally bring security and calm things down allowing Israelis and Palestinians to take a time out from each other. Not peace - but quiet for a while. And now it may no longer be possible. So much hope has just disappeared...

I supported Sharon's unilateral path of progress towards obtaining secure and defendable borders that will allow Israel to remain both democratic and Jewish. This path involves some painful concessions - losses that Sharon is prepared to make. Sharon was doing this not because he trusts the Palestinians - he doesn't. Not because he thinks they deserve it - they don't. Not because it will bring peace - it won't. It's because the current status quo is no longer tenable. It's because its more important to be a Jewish state in some of the land than to go for all of the land and risk losing everything. And because the world may ultimately force us to take this path anyways. Sharon has the courage, support and charisma to ensure that this path is taken on our terms, plotting a border with our vital and strategic interests in mind.

It used to be said that Sharon was inelectable. Today he is irreplaceable

And now Israel is in a state of political confusion where anything is possible and no one is ever written off. Yesterday the Likud were struggling to hold onto 13 seats in the polls - today Netanyahu is once again a reasonable prospect for Prime Minister. Yesterday Shinui were about to fade off into a haze of insignificance - today they are once again eyeing 5-10 seats. Even Shimon Peres may once again be in a position of relative power.

As usual the Head Heeb has one of the best and most thorough analyses of the repercussions from Sharon’s stroke: At a Stroke

What happens to Kadima?
I don’t see Kadima dissolving. I think they have a core of uniquely talented politicians who are unified behind the idea of obtaining secure and defensible borders for Israel even if it doesn’t mean peace with the Palestinians.

The Head Heeb points out that it wouldn’t be that easy for Kadima members to slide back into their previous parties.

Who will be the new leader of Kadima?
The Kadima leadership race will ultimately be a three horse race between acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Tzipi Livni, and Shaul Mofaz. Ehud Olmert has received the initial support from Kadima members for the leadership position. He is a Sharon loyalist and one of the most experienced and talented politicians in Israel. It used to be said in Israel that you could predict where Sharon would be holding two years from now by looking at what Olmert is saying today. He has strong right-wing credentials coupled with a sense of pragmatism which positions him to win support from both the traditional Likud and Labour voters. (Olmert visited South Africa last year, when he became the first member of the Israeli Knesset to visit south Africa since the fall of Apartheid. I attended his address to the Johannesburg Jewish community and liked what he had to say.)

Olmert will need the support of all members of Kadima, particularly that of Minister of Defence and former IDF Chief of Staff Shaul Mofaz. Mofaz also has right-wing credentials as a former Likudnik who supported Sharon’s disengagement plan.

The Elections
The current polls make for some interesting reading, but only a fool would take them too seriously. The polls suggest that if elections were held right now Kadima would win 42 seats if led by Shimon Peres and 40 seats if led by Ehud Olmert. 42 seats if led by Shimon Peres? That sort of ruins any credibility the poll may have claimed. In fact, I wouldn't be too surprised if Peres now left Kadima and returned to bolster Labour.

A more likely scenario is that the absence of Sharon will see the resurgence of the Likud and Shinui – parties who both lost votes to Kadima. Earlier polls indicated that the Likud would get a paltry 13 seats whilst Shinui was not even expected to get enough votes for 1 solitary seat. That has all changed.

What about the Palestinian elections?
In a sea of unknowns, the Palestinian elections represent the darkest uncertainty. Gaza, free from an Israeli presence, is in a state of chaos. There is no judicial system, no tax collecting apparatus, and no unified security or police apparatus. Kidnappings and fire-fights between rival security factions are daily events.

The disorder and absence of control has seemingly strengthened support for Hamas if the recent municipality elections are anything to go by. Hamas could now ride the crescent of this wave, leveraging Sharon’s disability as yet another sign of Israeli weakness. “Keep pounding away at the Israelis and eventually we will get it all” is the message that may see them victorious at the polls. If however Labour were to emerge as the new dominant Israeli party then we could see Fatah’s position strengthened amongst Palestinian voters.

For the moment all we can do is hope and pray for a full recovery for Ariel Sharon, despite it's unlikelihood.

I urge everyone to please recite Tehillim for Ariel Sharon. Sharon's Hebrew name to be used in prayers for the sick is Ariel Ben Devorah. It means Ariel son of Devorah. (His mother's name was Vera, but in Hebrew it is Devorah).

Chief Rabbi Metzger urges the reading of Tehilim

There are various Tehillim/Psalms one can recite for the sick but the last Perek one should recite is 119. All of the lines in this Perek begin with the letters of the Alef Bais. One should recite those verses that begin with the letters that form the name Ariel followed by that of his mother Devorah.

My analysis to follow.

Here's a look at some creative journalism from the Durban based newspaper The Mercury.

Headline to a Reuters story at The Mercury: Sharon wants US backing to annex West Bank says report.

Original headline from Reuters: Israel's Sharon aims to scrap peace plan - report.

Sharon may well be planning to scrap the road map to peace if indeed Hamas win the Palestinian elections. But he is certainly not planning to annex all of the West Bank! That The Mercury changed the headline in a way that deliberately misleads readers reflects the level of slant and bias that we should continue to expect from them.

Sharon is planning to annex the major settlement blocks (rightly so in a what's-Jewish-becomes-Israel-and-what's-Arab-becomes-Palestinian solution) but that is very different from annexing all of the West Bank. Sharon is probably planning to annex between 4-8% of the West Bank - vastly different from annexing all of it as The Mercury headline suggests.