Political Forecasting - Special Interest Groups
Political Forecasting

The Political Forecasting Special Interest Group is a resource for scholars and practitioners interested in forecasting elections and other political events.

 

 

Contact Information

This website is the product of collaboration on the part of J. Scott Armstrong and

Alfred G. Cuzán

Professor of Political Science
The University of West Florida
Pensacola, FL 32514

Publications

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Telephone: (850) 474-2345
Fax: (850) 473-7001

Randall Jones

Professor of Political Science
University of Central Oklahoma
Edmond, OK 73034

Author of Who Will Be in the White House? Predicting Presidential Elections (New York: Longman Publishers, 2002).

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Telephone: (405) 974-5270
Fax: (405) 974-3823


Acknowledgements: The inspiration and drive for the launching of politicalforecasting.com originated with J. Scott Armstrong, Polly's energizer extraordinaire. Many thanks to Steve Archibald, who suggested the name Polly. Thanks, too, to John Carstens, RIP, our first Pollynician, for his technical assistance during the first years of Polly’s life.


 

What's new

Scott Armstrong will present findings on the accuracy of forecasts from novel but evidence-based methods for forecasting election results in a keynote speech at the International Symposium on Forecasting in Hong Kong in June. The research is part of the PollyVote Project with colleagues Alfred G. Cuzán, Andreas Graefe, and Randall Jones. (19 May, 2009)

Polly crows: For the second time in a row, Polly called a presidential election with a perfect or near-perfect forecast. When the final results were in for the 2004 election Pollyvote was off by a mere one-fourth of one percent. This morning preliminary totals showed the Obama-Biden ticket taking 53% of the two-party vote, exactly what Polly predicted on Election Eve. Once again, Polly has shown that a combination of election forecasts within and across methods is hard to beat. (5 November, 2008) more ...

Election decided on issues, not race. Voters selected the candidate they expected to do better in solving the country's problems. Graefe and Armstrong used the index method and data from polling of potential voters’ opinions about how the candidates would handle issues of concern to predict Barack Obama to win as early as March. In their last forecast before the election they predicted Obama would receive 52.5% of the popular two-party vote, which erred by only 0.6%. (5 November 2008) more ...

 

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